US President Bush and Reform in the Palestinian Authority
By Neil Lazarus

"Peace requires a new and different Palestinian leadership, so that a Palestinian state can be born. I call on the Palestinian people to elect new leaders, leaders not compromised by terror.
I call upon them to build a practicing democracy based on tolerance and liberty."

US President George Bush

Dramatic Change in US Political Analysis

It is only by exploring the shift in political thinking caused by September 11, that we can understand Bush's recent Middle East Policy Speech. President Bush, the defender of western values, post September 11, is very different to Bush, the isolationist, prior to that historic date.

When George Bush was elected, America was a much simpler place. The Twin Towers still stood, an ideological stalemate between East and West had been created by the end of the cold war and the Middle East, it was perceived, could be put on a back burner.

Until September 11th, America still believed it could afford a policy of self- imposed isolationism. 19 suicide bombers, 4 airplanes and nearly 3,000 dead later, America discovered the flaw in its strategic analysis and policy. Terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism replaced Communism as the prime threat to its view of the world order.

As the dust began to settle on Ground Zero, American foreign policy shifted dramatically.

Nine days after New York and Washington were shaken by Bin Laden's attack, US President Bush made an historic address to both Houses of Congress. He declared:

Our war on terror begins with al-Qaeda, but it does not end there. It will not end until every terrorist group of global reach has been found, stopped, and defeated... Al-Qaeda is to terror what the mafia is to crime. But its goal is not making money; its goal is remaking the world and imposing its radical beliefs on people everywhere. The course of this conflict is not known, yet its outcome is certain. Freedom and fear, justice and cruelty, have always been at war, and we know that God is not neutral between them.

(For the complete speech see: http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_1555000/1555641.stm)

Arafat's Political Decline

The revelation that Emperor Arafat had no clothes of credibility was a slow process for the Bush government.
Until recently, President Bush continued advocating restraint towards Arafat. The Bush government, especially the State Department, did not want to weaken any Arab coalition that could be built against Saddam Hussein of Iraq.

In Israel, public opinion was dramatically divided after the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993. The Labor Zionist left had argued that Arafat and the Palestinian Authority were partners for peace, the right in Israel had always rejected this claim. Today, following years with waves of terrorism and almost two years of unprecedented violence between Israel and the Palestinians, the Israeli Left has itself split between those who believe peace is still possible and those who have become disillusioned with their partner for peace.

Immediately after 9/11 it was not clear how Bush would deal with Arafat. Initially, Israel was concerned that Arafat would be considered a "good terrorist." Skeptics pointed to Iran's presence in the anti-terrorism coalition and Syria's election to the UN Security Council as examples of American double standards, since Iran and Syria were sponsors of terror and appeared on the US blacklist.

Arafat, however, did not fare as well. It is useful to note a number of turning points in Arafat's downfall. His decline was a culmination of the following incidents:

1. Arafat's rejection of Israel's peace proposal at Camp David, August 2000.
2. Clear evidence discovered by the IDF in implicating Arafat personally with terror. See: http://www.idf.il/arafat/terrorism2/english/main_index.stm
3. The Karine A ship, ordered by Arafat, arrived during his supposed call for a cease-fire, with 50 tons of weapons on board designated for the Palestinian Authority.
4. The massacre of Jews at a Seder table in Netanya, Pesach April 2002.
5. The fact that Arafat was unable, or unwilling, to control terrorism.

The US change of policy towards Arafat can be linked to a conditioned change of US policy towards Iraq. When it became clear that the Arab world would not support a USA sponsored attack on Iraq, US policy planners began to change track. A plan was devised and authorized to allow the CIA to destabilize the Iraqui Ba'ath regime. Such a plan would require the support of localized forces, rather than neighboring countries in the region. The US thereby freed themselves of the exigencies of coalition building.

What is clear is that President Bush has given a green light to a two-pronged, undeclared Israeli policy of attacking terrorism and PA targets, in order to weaken the PA's hold and support for terror in different locations. Recent IDF action in Hebron exemplifies this policy. By destroying the PA compound, Israel has weakened their influence in the whole Hebron area and deprived terrorists of their secure base. It would seem that Israel is both fighting terrorism and weakening the PA, to prepare for the creation of an alternative infrastructure...

Perceptions of Democracy

During Bush's address to both houses of Congress, nine days after the attack of September 11, a less frequently quoted sentence reveals the heart of the newly formed US policy:

"Americans are asking: Why do they hate us?
They hate what we see right here in this chamber, a democratically elected government.
Their leaders are self-appointed. They hate our freedoms, our freedom of religion, our freedom of speech, our freedom to vote and assemble and disagree with each other.
They want to overthrow existing governments in many Muslim countries, such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan."

Ironically, the three countries listed are hardly beacons of liberal democracy in the Middle East.

When George Bush calls for new leadership to create a Palestine based on liberal values, he is calling for an Arab country to be created for which there is no precedent in the Arab world. As a recent editorial in The Wall Street Journal noted:

Yesterday Mr. Bush said this day is over. "Today the elected Palestinian legislature has no authority, and power is concentrated in the hands of an unaccountable few," he said, adding that, "Palestinian authorities are encouraging, not opposing, terrorism. This is unacceptable."

In short, if Palestinians want the world to recognize them as a state, then they need to behave like a civilized one. That means democratic institutions, with leaders who win their legitimacy through the ballot box. It means functioning courts, not summary executions of collaborators. And it also means what Mr. Bush called "an externally supervised effort to rebuild and reform the Palestinian security services."
Democracy for Palestinians: Bush's bold plan for MidEast peace.
Editorial The Wall Street Journal June 25, 2002

The PA 100 Day Plan and the Bush Speech

In an attempt to divert US pressure from this turn-around in policy, the Palestinian Authority has published a "100-day plan" for political and security reforms.

The plan proposes:

1. Presidential and legislative council elections planned for January.
2. Municipal elections in March 2003.
3. Placing the Preventive Security Service, the PA police, and civil defense under the control of the Interior Minister.
4. Economic reforms, greater efficiency in government institutions,
5. A separation between the judicial, the legislative, and the executive power.
   
6. Implementation of the PA's Basic Law, signed this April.
7. A single transparent Treasury account would be created, to improve the management of public funds.
8. All PA funds will be deposited in this account according to the plan. The plan denounced "fanaticism " in the educational system and said it would be reformed.
9. The plan also said the PA will create greater discipline in its security services, and establish law and order.
10. It stressed that the PA is still committed to the peace process, and will work with all friendly parties to end the violence.
11. It condemned attacks against Israelis and Palestinians.

Whether this plan can be implemented has been questioned by many. It may bring some financial transparency which would guarantee the continuation of the EU's 8% contribution to the budget and US funds.

However, whether these points bear any correspondence to what President Bush meant in his speech, or are really a means of throwing dust in the eyes of the European Union, the United Nations Organization and the US, is equally signficant. From the outside, it certainly looks like a one-man show continuing, or a glimpse of even more dangerous options ahead.

1. PA elections:
President Bush specifically calls for a "leadership not compromised by terrorism". This is not addressed in the provisions for elections, and Arafat intends to stand for election, as do other "compromised" Council members. He shows no intentions of stepping down, or relinquishing the reins of power before the elections.

3. Interior Ministry and security:
The new Interior Minister is an Arafat appointee, thus maintaining Arafat's control over the security apparatus and its finance.

5-6. Constitutional reform and the Basic Law:
Arafat does not intend to play a symbolic role, but to sculpture, legislate and implement these reforms as his own work. There are many countries, like the former USSR and smaller states in the world, usually known as "banana republics", where the trappings of constitution are essentially meaningless in terms of democracy.
The Basic Law as passed and the constitutional reforms as proposed contain no significant provisions reflecting a society which seeks the goals mentioned in the Bush speech.

9-11 Law and order, peace, and opposition to terror attacks
There is no guarantee that new elections will bring to power an executive, legislative, or judiciary which will implement the American standards on cessation and deterrence of terror. If these goals are not enshrined in the current administration and given legitimacy in public opinion, they are not achievable.

Palestinian Public Opinion and Political Stability

Palestinian opinions have become more extreme. A recent poll for The Palestinian Jerusalem Media and Communications Center found:
78.9 per cent of Palestinians favor the continuation of the Intifada,
68.1 per cent support the use of suicide bombers
and 51.1 per cent of Palestinians claim the Intifada is fighting for the destruction of Israel - and not the withdrawal of Israel to its 1967 borders.

Given the present climate of opinion in the territories, it is not clear whether Bush's calls for a western liberal valued Palestine are realistic. Indeed, they could be detrimental to regional stability.

What is less obvious to Washington is that by isolating Arafat, President Bush may be inadvertently strengthening him, as the symbol of solidarity - Arafat's broad-based public support has always been reinforced under siege, although a new phenomenon of protest and dissent has emerged.

Moreover, by outlining a vision of a Palestine based on liberal values, Bush may have strengthened the forces of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad: What the USA does not take into account is that, for the advocates of Jihad, liberalism capitalism and democracy are abhorrent and baseless values that seek to replace what they maintain as the real truth of the Koran. In this light, anybody other than a fundamentalist who succeeds Arafat will be considered a disposable pawn of the West.

Points to Ponder

1. How can President Bush put "teeth" into his new policy ideas?

2. Do you think the Palestinian Authority will comply - and what do you think will happen if they don't?

3. How do you read Arafat's 100 day plan against the Bush policy speech?

4. Why is President Bush pressing only the Palestinians - out of all the Arab countries - for a democratic and more transparent regime?

5. Why did President Bush not try to win over Chairman Arafat in more "honeyed" tones?

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Full Text of US President Bush's Middle East Policy Speech

For too long, the citizens of the Middle East have lived in the midst of death and fear. The hatred of a few holds the hopes of many hostage. The forces of extremism and terror are attempting to kill progress and peace by killing the innocent. And this casts a dark shadow over an entire region.

For the sake of all humanity, things must change in the Middle East. It is untenable for Israeli citizens to live in terror. It is untenable for Palestinians to live in squalor and occupation. And the current situation offers no prospect that life will improve. Israeli citizens will continue to be victimized by terrorists, and so Israel will continue to defend herself, and the situation of the Palestinian people will grow more and more miserable.

My vision is two states, living side by side, in peace and security. There is simply no way to achieve that peace until all parties fight terror.

Yet at this critical moment, if all parties will break with the past and set out on a new path, we can overcome the darkness with the light of hope.

Peace requires a new and different Palestinian leadership, so that a Palestinian state can be born. I call on the Palestinian people to elect new leaders, leaders not compromised by terror.

I call upon them to build a practicing democracy based on tolerance and liberty.

If the Palestinian people actively pursue these goals, America and the world will actively support their efforts. If the Palestinian people meet these goals, they will be able to reach agreement with Israel and Egypt and Jordan on security and other arrangements for independence.

And when the Palestinian people have new leaders, new institutions and new security arrangements with their neighbors, the United States of America will support the creation of a Palestinian state, whose borders and certain aspects of its sovereignty will be provisional until resolved as part of a final settlement in the Middle East.

In the work ahead, we all have responsibilities. The Palestinian people are gifted and capable and I'm confident they can achieve a new birth for their nation.

A Palestinian state will never be created by terror. It will be built through reform. And reform must be more than cosmetic change or a veiled attempt to preserve the status quo. True reform will require entirely new political and economic institutions based on democracy, market economics and action against terrorism.

Today the elected Palestinian legislature has no authority and power is concentrated in the hands of an unaccountable few. A Palestinian state can only serve its citizens with a new constitution, which separates the powers of government.

The Palestinian parliament should have the full authority of a legislative body. Local officials and government ministers need authority of their own and the independence to govern effectively.

The United States, along with the European Union and Arab states, will work with Palestinian leaders to create a new constitutional framework and a working democracy for the Palestinian people. And the United States, along with others in the international community, will help the Palestinians organize and monitor fair, multiparty local elections by the end of the year with national elections to follow.

Today, the Palestinian people live in economic stagnation, made worse by official corruption. A Palestinian state will require a vibrant economy, where honest enterprise is encouraged by honest government.

The United States, the international donor community and the World Bank stand ready to work with Palestinians on a major project of economic reform and development. The United States, the EU, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are willing to oversee reforms in Palestinian finances, encouraging transparency and independent auditing. And the United States, along with our partners in the developed world, will increase our humanitarian assistance to relieve Palestinian suffering.

Today, the Palestinian people lack effective courts of law and have no means to defend and vindicate their rights. A Palestinian state will require a system of reliable justice to punish those who prey on the innocent. The United States and members of the international community stand ready to work with Palestinian leaders to establish, finance and monitor a truly independent judiciary.

Today, Palestinian authorities are encouraging, not opposing terrorism. This is unacceptable. And the United States will not support the establishment of a Palestinian state until its leaders engage in a sustained fight against the terrorists and dismantle their infrastructure.

This will require an externally supervised effort to rebuild and reform the Palestinian security services. The security system must have clear lines of authority and accountability and a unified chain of command.

America is pursuing this reform along with key regional states. The world is prepared to help, yet ultimately these steps toward statehood depend on the Palestinian people and their leaders. If they energetically take the path of reform, the rewards can come quickly. If Palestinians embrace democracy, confront corruption and firmly reject terror, they can count on American support for the creation of a provisional state of Palestine.

With a dedicated effort, this state could rise rapidly, as it comes to terms with Israel, Egypt and Jordan on practical issues such as security. The final borders, the capital and other aspects of this state's sovereignty will be negotiated between the parties as part of a final settlement.

Arab states have offered their help in this process, and their help is needed.

I've said in the past that nations are either with us or against us in the war on terror. To be counted on the side of peace, nations must act. Every leader actually committed to peace will end incitement to violence in official media and publicly denounce homicide bombings. Every nation actually committed to peace will stop the flow of money, equipment and recruits to terrorist groups seeking the destruction of Israel, including Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah.

Every nation actually committed to peace must block the shipment of Iranian supplies to these groups and oppose regimes that promote terror, like Iraq.

And Syria must choose the right side in the war on terror by closing terrorist camps and expelling terrorist organizations.

Leaders who want to be included in the peace process must show by their deeds and undivided support for peace.

And as we move toward a peaceful solution, Arab states will be expected to build closer ties of diplomacy and commerce with Israel, leading to full normalization of relations between Israel and the entire Arab world.

Israel also has a large stake in the success of a democratic Palestine. Permanent occupation threatens Israel's identity and democracy. A stable, peaceful Palestinian state is necessary to achieve the security that Israel longs for.

So I challenge Israel to take concrete steps to support the emergence of a viable, credible Palestinian state.

As we make progress toward security, Israel forces need to withdraw fully to positions they held prior to Sept. 28, 2000. And consistent with the recommendations of the Mitchell committee, Israeli settlement activity in the occupied territories must stop.

The Palestinian economy must be allowed to develop. As violence subsides, freedom of movement should be restored, permitting innocent Palestinians to resume work and normal life. Palestinian legislators and officials, humanitarian and international workers, must be allowed to go about the business of building a better future. And Israel should release frozen Palestinian revenues into honest, accountable hands.

I've asked Secretary Powell to work intensively with Middle Eastern and international leaders to realize the vision of a Palestinian state, focusing them on a comprehensive plan to support Palestinian reform and institution building.

Ultimately, Israelis and Palestinians must address the core issues that divide them if there is to be a real peace, resolving all claims and ending the conflict between them.

This means that the Israeli occupation that began in 1967 will be ended through a settlement negotiated between the parties, based on U.N. Resolutions 242 and 338, with Israeli withdrawal to secure and recognized borders.

We must also resolve questions concerning Jerusalem, the plight and future of Palestinian refugees, and a final peace between Israel and Lebanon and Israel and a Syria that supports peace and fights terror.

All who are familiar with the history of the Middle East realize that there may be setbacks in this process. Trained and determined killers, as we have seen, want to stop it. Yet the Egyptian and Jordanian peace treaties with Israel remind us that, with determined and responsible leadership, progress can come quickly.

As new Palestinian institutions and new leaders emerge, demonstrating real performance on security and reform, I expect Israel to respond and work toward a final status agreement.

With intensive effort by all of us, agreement could be reached within three years from now. And I and my country will actively lead toward that goal.

I can understand the deep anger and anguish of the Israeli people. You've lived too long with fear and funerals, having to avoid markets and public transportation, and forced to put armed guards in kindergarten classrooms. The Palestinian Authority has rejected your offered hand and trafficked with terrorists. You have a right to a normal life. You have a right to security. And I deeply believe that you need a reformed, responsible Palestinian partner to achieve that security.

I can understand the deep anger and despair of the Palestinian people. For decades you've been treated as pawns in the Middle East conflict. Your interests have been held hostage to a comprehensive peace agreement that never seems to come, as your lives get worse year by year.

You deserve democracy and the rule of law. You deserve an open society and a thriving economy. You deserve a life of hope for your children.

An end to occupation and a peaceful democratic Palestinian state may seem distant, but America and our partners throughout the world stand ready to help, help you make them possible as soon as possible.

If liberty can blossom in the rocky soil of the West Bank in Gaza, it will inspire millions of men and women around the globe, who are equally weary of poverty and oppression, equally entitled to the benefits of democratic government.

I have a hope for the people of Muslim countries. Your commitments to morality and learning and tolerance lead to great historical achievements, and those values are alive in the Islamic world today. You have a rich culture, and you share the aspirations of men and women in every culture. Prosperity and freedom and dignity are not just American hopes or Western hopes, they are universal human hopes. And even in the violence and turmoil of the Middle East, America believes those hopes have the power to transform lives and nations.

This moment is both an opportunity and a test for all parties in the Middle East: an opportunity to lay the foundations for future peace, a test to show who's serious about peace and who is not.

The choice here is stark and simple, the Bible says, "I have set before you life and death, therefore choose life." The time has arrived for everyone in this conflict to choose peace and hope and life.