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ISRAEL TODAY ELECTIONS 96
HOW CRITICAL EVENTS IMPACT ON OPINION
Talya Kalmus
This is a discussion activity, based on the latest public
opinion polls: use those at end of file or update them.
Procedure:
-
Reproduce the poll charts for everyone and ask them to mark
in the following events below the first chart. Help them
with dates for the more difficult ones.
-
Reproduce the comparative charts for party positions on
major issues.
-
Use the following questions to lead the discussion:
The leadership / major parties
- How do you explain the changes in the results in the
Prime Ministerial race?
- Which events seem to add votes to the Likud and which
for Labor?
- Why was it so important for Binyamin Netanyahu [Likud]
to reach an election agreement with David Levy [Gesher] and
Rafael Eitan [Tsomet] to unite their lists? [Hint: only a
party leader can present him/herself for Prime Minister.]
The Parties
- What is the importance of the smaller political
parties? [When does their role become decisive?]
- Meretz currently has 12 MKs; how do you explain the
fall in their popularity in the '96 polls?
- What is the difference of attitude of the various
religious parties on major issues?
- What would have been the benefit of a united Arab party list?
POLL RESULTS PERES/NETANYAHU - KNESSET
Aaron Lerner, 26 April, 1996
[excerpts]
Polls in "Yediot Aharonot"
For Prime Minister:
If elections were held today for personal election of the
Prime Minister, and Shimon Peres and Binyamin Netanyahu
were the candidates, who would you vote for?
|
1995
|
|
1996
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8
|
6
|
3
|
31
|
7
|
21
|
28
|
13
|
20
|
27
|
3
|
18
|
25
|
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
Jan
|
Jan
|
Feb
|
Feb
|
Feb
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
|
Peres
|
54%
|
46%
|
50%
|
46%
|
51%
|
50%
|
48%
|
50%
|
49%
|
51%
|
51%
|
50%
|
49%
|
|
Netanyahu
|
23%
|
28%
|
29%
|
30%
|
36%
|
36%
|
48%
|
47%
|
47%
|
45%
|
45%
|
45%
|
44%
|
|
Undecided
|
12%
|
16%
|
12%
|
11%
|
5%
|
8%
|
4%
|
3%
|
4%
|
4%
|
4%
|
5%
|
7%
|
|
won't vote
|
10%
|
1%
|
9%
|
13%
|
8%
|
6%
|
+
|
+
|
+
|
+
|
+
|
|
|
+ included in "Did not decide"
For Parties:
If there were elections for the Knesset today, which party
would you vote for? (number of mandates)
Projected
|
|
1995
|
|
1996
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8
|
6
|
3
|
31
|
7
|
21
|
28
|
13
|
20
|
27
|
3
|
18
|
25
|
|
Current
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
Jan
|
Jan
|
Feb
|
Feb
|
Feb
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Mar
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
Apr
|
|
Labor
|
44
|
46
|
44
|
44
|
44
|
45
|
45
|
40
|
42
|
43
|
43
|
43
|
44
|
42.5
|
|
Likud
|
32
|
30
|
31
|
31.5
|
29
|
36
|
35
|
40
|
42
|
44
|
43
|
41.5
|
42
|
42
|
|
Tzomet
|
8
|
6
|
5.5
|
6
|
5
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
|
Meretz
|
12
|
8
|
8.5
|
7.5
|
7
|
8
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
5
|
7
|
6
|
6
|
6.5
|
|
Moledet
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
-
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
2
|
3
|
1.5
|
-
|
2.5
|
2
|
3
|
|
NRP
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
6.5
|
6
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
5.5
|
5
|
6
|
|
Torah
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
|
Shas
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
|
Arab/Communist
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
++7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
|
Levy
|
-
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
2.5
|
3
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
3rd Way
|
-
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
2
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
2.5
|
2
|
2
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
|
Immigrant
|
-
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
|
Aloni
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
* Survey presented "Likud Tzomet Bloc" - results appear in
Likud figure.
% Levy Party added to Likud
++
Includes Ahmed Tibi
[IMRA note - there is a certain
'art' involved in presenting the poll results as the
pollster has to decide how to distribute the undecided
vote.]
Notes on poll-taking:
The Dahaf Institute survey was
carried out for "Yediot Ahronot" on Tuesday and Wednesday (
7 October/8 November) within days of the assassination of
Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin OBM and covered between
5O1-530 interviewees each time from a representative sample
of the adult population in the country. The standard error
is +/- 4 percentage points. (Published in "Yediot Ahronot"
on November 1O and December 8 1995; January 5, February 2,
February 9, February 16, February 23, March 1, March 8,
March 15, March 22, March 29, April 5, 17/18 April 1996 and
25 April [773 in sample].)
IMRA: Some commentators note that one survey was carried
out the day that the court handed down its decision
regarding Yigal Amir, the assassin of the Late Prime
Minister Yitzhak Rabin. Note, too, that on 6/7 February
1996 details of the Likud/Tzomet bloc agreement were not
yet finalized.
Acknowledgment:
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Associate
IMRA
(Independent Media Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982
Kfar Sava)
Tel 972-9-904719/Fax 972-9-911645
INTERNET ADDRESS: imra@netvision.net.il
pager 03-6750750 subscriber 4811 New: Web Site http://www.aquanet.co.il/web/ray/imra.html
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Created: 25/04/99 Updated:
10/05/99
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