PUBLIC OPINION POLLS BACKGROUNDER
Undoubtedly, the major issue in this election is the peace
process.Use the polls below to explore how the issues
affect voting [poll #1]and the launch and progress of the
"Grapes of Wrath" strike policy inLebanon.
Acknowledgement:
All the polls in the English translation have beenexcerpted
from
IMRA
materials, see address at end of this file.
Contents:
- Peres/Netanyahu - Knesset
- Security - Lebanon - "Grapes Of Wrath"
- Peres' Promise Not To Divide Jerusalem
- Clinton's Assessment Of Arafat
- PLO Compiliance With Oslo Agreements
1. Poll Results Peres/Netanyahu - Knesset
|
Aaron Lerner
|
|
April 19, 1996
|
[
IMRA
: Some commentators note that the surveys were carried out
theday that the court handed down its decision regarding
Yigal Amir, theassassin of the Late Prime Minister Yitzhak
Rabin.]
Polls in "Yediot Aharonot"
For Prime Minister:
If elections were held today
for personal election of the PrimeMinister, and Shimon
Peres and Binyamin Netanyahu were thecandidates, who would
you vote for?
|
1995
|
1996
|
|
7-8 Nov
|
5-6 Dec
|
2-3 Jan
|
30-31 Jan
|
6-7 Feb
|
20-21 Feb
|
27-28 Feb
|
5-6 Mar
|
12-13 Mar
|
20 Mar
|
27 Mar
|
3 Apr
|
17-18 Apr
|
|
Peres
|
54%
|
46%
|
5O%
|
46%
|
51%
|
50%
|
48%
|
46%
|
50%
|
49%
|
51%
|
51%
|
50%
|
|
Netanyahu
|
23%
|
28%
|
29%
|
3O%
|
36%
|
36%
|
48%
|
49%
|
47%
|
47%
|
45%
|
45%
|
45%
|
|
Undecided
|
12%
|
16%
|
12%
|
11%
|
5%
|
8%
|
4%
|
5%
|
3%
|
4%
|
4%
|
4%
|
5%
|
|
Won't vote
|
1O%
|
1%
|
9%
|
13%
|
8%
|
6%
|
+
|
+
|
+
|
+
|
+
|
+
|
|
+
included in "Did not decide"
(In the April 17-18 survey,
10% of the Arabs shifted fromsupporting Peres to "undecided")
If there were elections for the Knesset today, which party
wouldyou vote for? (number of mandates projected)
|
|
1995
|
1996
|
|
Current
Knesset
|
7-8 Nov
|
5-6 Dec
|
2-3 Jan
|
30-31 Jan
|
6-7 Feb
|
20-21 Feb
|
27-28 Feb
|
5-6 Mar
|
12-13 Mar
|
20 Mar
|
27 Mar
|
3 Apr
|
17-18 Apr
|
|
Labor
|
44
|
46
|
44
|
44
|
44
|
45
|
45
|
40
|
43
|
42
|
43
|
43
|
43
|
44
|
|
Likud
|
32
|
3O
|
31
|
31.5
|
29
|
36
|
35
|
40
|
43
|
42
|
44
|
43
|
41.5
|
42
|
|
Tzomet
|
8
|
6
|
5.5
|
6
|
5
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
*
|
|
Meretz
|
12
|
8
|
8.5
|
7.5
|
7
|
8
|
7
|
7
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
7
|
6
|
6
|
|
Moledet
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
-
|
1.5
|
1.5
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
1.5
|
-
|
2.5
|
2
|
|
NRP
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
6.5
|
6
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
5.5
|
5
|
|
Torah
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
|
Shas
|
6
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4.5
|
4.5
|
|
Arab/Communist
|
5
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
7
|
7 ++
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
7
|
|
Levy
|
-
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
2.5
|
3
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
%
|
|
3rd Way
|
-
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
2
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
2.5
|
2
|
2
|
1.5
|
|
Immigrant
|
-
|
2
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
|
Aloni
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
- *
- Survey presented "Likud Tzomet Bloc" - results appear
in Likudfigure.
- %
- Levy Party added to Likud
- **
- Includes Ahmed Tibi
[
IMRA note
- there is a certain 'art' involved in presenting thepoll
results as the pollster has to decide how to distribute
theundecided vote.]
Notes on poll-taking:
The Dahaf Institute survey
was carried out for "Yediot Ahronot" onTuesday and
Wednesday ( 7 October/8 November) within days of
theassassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin OBM and
covered between5O1-530 interviewees each time from a
representative sample of theadult population in the
country. The standard error is +/- 4percentage points.
(Published in "Yediot Ahronot" on November 1O andDecember 8
1995; January 5, February 2, February 9, February
16,February 23, March 1, March 8, March 15, March 22, March
29,April 5, and 17/18 April 1996.)
Note that on 6/7 February 1996 details of the Likud/Tzomet
blocagreement were not yet finalized.
Polls in "Ma'ariv"
If there were elections today for the Prime Minister and
the threecandidates were Shimon Peres, Binyamin Netanyahu
and David Levy [*],for whom would you vote out of the three?
|
23 Jan
|
1st wk Feb
|
14 Feb
|
21 Feb
|
28 Feb
|
5 Mar
|
7 Mar
|
13 Mar
|
21 Mar
|
27 Mar
|
16 Apr
|
|
Peres
|
54.4%
|
52%
|
47%
|
49%
|
43%
|
44%
|
46%
|
44%
|
49%
|
48%
|
49%
|
|
Netanyahu
|
31.2%
|
3O%
|
29%
|
34%
|
36%
|
46%
|
40%
|
41%
|
43%
|
40%
|
39%
|
|
Other
|
4.3%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
David Levy*
|
-
|
7%
|
6%
|
4%
|
6%
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
Don't Know/ Refuse
|
1O.1%
|
11%
|
18%
|
13%
|
15%
|
10%
|
14%
|
15%
|
8%
|
12%
|
12%
|
- *
- Discontinued after the election agreement.
If today there were elections for the Knesset, which party
wouldyou vote for?
|
1992 Election Seats
|
Survey Seats +
|
|
|
23 Jan
|
1st wk Feb
|
14 Feb
|
21 Feb
|
28 Feb
|
7 Mar
|
13 Mar
|
21 Mar
|
27 Mar
|
16 Apr
|
|
Labor
|
44
|
48
|
48
|
47
|
44
|
42
|
44
|
45
|
44
|
45
|
44
|
|
Likud
|
32
|
31
|
35
|
37
|
34
|
39
|
40
|
39
|
40
|
39
|
38
|
|
Tzomet
|
8
|
5-6
|
**
|
**
|
**
|
**
|
**
|
**
|
**
|
**
|
**
|
|
Meretz
|
12
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
6-7
|
5-6
|
5
|
4
|
7
|
6
|
7
|
|
Shas
|
6
|
3-4
|
3-4
|
3-4
|
3-4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
|
Moledet
|
3
|
2
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
2-3
|
3
|
|
Degel Hatora
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
4-5
|
4-5
|
4
|
4-5
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
|
Mafdal (NRP)
|
6
|
5
|
4-5
|
4
|
3-4
|
5-6
|
5
|
4-5
|
5-6
|
5-6
|
5
|
|
Commun/Arabs
|
3
|
4
|
4-5
|
5
|
5-6
|
5-6
|
5
|
5-6
|
6
|
6
|
6
|
|
David Levy
|
-
|
2-3
|
3-4
|
3
|
3
|
4
|
**
|
**
|
**
|
**
|
**
|
|
Third Way
|
-
|
1-2
|
2-3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
2-3
|
3-4
|
2
|
2
|
|
Immigrants
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
|
Refuse
|
-
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
5
|
2
|
5
|
4
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
Candidates - Maariv Poll
After the primaries, which party do you think has the best
list in:
|
Security
|
Diplomacy
|
Social/Economic
|
|
Total
|
Age 18-24
|
Total
|
Age 18-24
|
Total
|
Age 18-24
|
|
Labor
|
38%
|
30%
|
50%
|
47%
|
45%
|
39%
|
|
Likud
|
48%
|
57%
|
35%
|
41%
|
35%
|
45%
|
The survey of 516 adult Israeli Jew was carried out
"early in theweek" and has an accuracy of +/- 4%
- +
- There is no explanation of the technique used -
IMRA
- ***
- Survey presented "Likud Tzomet Bloc" - results appear
in Likudfigure.
The 16 April survey of 509 adult Israeli Jews was
"weighted for theArab votes" and it is not clear how this
was done. The surveys havean accuracy of +/- 4%. ("Maariv"
26 January, 9 February, 16 February, 23 February,1 March, 8
March, 15 March, 22 March, 29 March and April 19, 1996).
2. Security - Lebanon - "Grapes Of Wrath"
|
Aaron Lerner
|
|
April 19, 1996
|
"Ma'ariv"
Should, within the framework of a peace agreement with
Lebanon,supported by Syria, Israel have to withdraw from
the security zone[in Lebanon]?
|
Should
|
41%
|
|
Should not
|
45%
|
|
Don't know
|
14%
|
Do you support a significant enlargement of the security
zone inorder to distance the North from Katusha range?
|
Enlarge
|
30%
|
|
Don't enlarge
|
58%
|
|
Don't know
|
12%
|
Should the Grapes of Wrath Campaign stop the moment the
Hizbullastops shooting Katushas - or only when a general
cease fire isachieved which prevents attacks on IDF
positions in the securityzone?
|
Stop only in a general cease fire
|
67%
|
|
Stop the moment the Hizbulla stops shooting
|
25%
|
|
Don't know
|
8%
|
3. 38.3% Believe Peres' Promise Not To
Divide Jerusalem
|
Aaron Lerner
|
|
April 16, 1996
|
[excerpted]
Below, please find a Gallup poll, on behalf of
IMRA
(Independent Media Review and Analysis) on Sunday night,
April 14, 1996.
It should be noted that the survey
was carried out during the earlystages of the
"Grapes of Wrath" campaign in Lebanon, when
mostcommentators expected the public's assessment of Peres
to rise.
The telephone survey of a representative
national sample of 505adult Israeli Jews has an accuracy of
+/- 4.0%.
Question:
Do you believe or not the promise of Shimon Peres that
he will notdivide Jerusalem?
|
Believe
|
38.3%
|
Don't believe
|
52.0%
|
Don't know
|
8.2%
|
Refuse to reply
|
1.5%
|
4. Only 6.9% Of Israelis Agree With
Clinton's Assessment Of Arafat
|
Aaron Lerner
|
|
April 2, 1996
|
President Bill Clinton certified today that Yasser Arafat
has methis Oslo obligations. A Gallup poll, on behalf of
IMRA
(IndependentMedia Review and Analysis) on Thursday night,
March 7, found that6.9% of Jewish Israelis believe that
Arafat has honored hisobligations to the extent necessary.
More than three times as manyMeretz voters (22.9%) thought
that Arafat was sufficiently honoringhis obligations.
The telephone survey of a representative national sample of
503adult Israeli Jews has an accuracy of +/- 4.0%.
Gallup
7 March 1996
To what extent do you think Arafat has kept or not kept
hisobligations under the Oslo Agreements?
|
Kept more than nesessary
|
Kept as nesessary
|
Kept less than nesessary
|
Didn't kept at all
|
No reply
|
Total
|
|
Voted in 1992
|
|
Labor
|
0.5%
|
8.8%
|
72.0%
|
18.1%
|
0.5%
|
149
|
|
Likud
|
-
|
2.1%
|
35.4%
|
62.5%
|
-
|
107
|
|
Meretz
|
2.9%
|
20.0%
|
71.4%
|
5.7%
|
-
|
41
|
|
|
Secular
|
1.1%
|
7.8%
|
64.6%
|
25.8%
|
0.7%
|
269
|
5. Public Opinion Polls On PLO Compiliance
With Oslo Agreements
|
Aaron Lerner
|
|
April 8, 1996
|
On April 1, President Clinton certified that the PLO is
"abiding by"its Oslo Agreement commitments.
Three related public opinion polls follow:
Poll 1 (USA):
Last year Congress voted to give $500 million to the
PLO as part ofthe peace accord, provided the PLO agree to
actively fight terrorism.Right now Congress has a chance to
reverse that decision.What should Congress do?
|
Still give the $500 million to the PLO
|
23%
|
|
Not give the money to the PLO
|
77%
|
Nationwide U.S. poll of 1,000 respondents, conducted March
10-11,1996 by Luntz Public Opinion Company of Arlington,
Virginia.Estimating error +/- 3.5 percentage points.
Poll 2 (Israel):
The United States was witness to the agreements between
Israel and thePalestinians.To what extent in your opinion
did the U.S. act or notact that Arafat should honor his
commitments in accordance with theagreements which he
signed with Israel?
|
To a considerable extent
|
14.5%
|
|
A little
|
36.1%
|
|
Acted enough
|
31.5%
|
|
Did not act at all
|
11.6%
|
|
Combined positive
|
46.0%
|
|
Combined negative
|
47.7%
|
Gallup phone survey of 525 Israeli Jews, 18 years and
older,evening March 28, 1996. Estimating error +/- 4.5
percentagepoints. This survey was commissioned by
Washington D.C. basedAmerican Academics For Israel's Future
(AAFIF).
Poll 3 (Israel):
To what extent do you think Arafat has kept or not kept
hisobligations under the Oslo Agreements?
|
More than necessary
|
0.8%
|
|
Less than necessary
|
55.7%
|
|
As necessary
|
6.1%
|
|
Not at all
|
35.8%
|
|
No reply
|
1.6%
|
|
Combined positive
|
6.9%
|
|
Combined negative
|
91.5%
|
To what extent until today did the Government of Israel
pressureArafat to honor his obligations in accordance with
the OsloAgreements?
|
Considerably
|
6.7%
|
|
So-So
|
28.9%
|
|
Little
|
42.1%
|
|
Not at all
|
20.5%
|
|
No reply
|
1.8%
|
Gallup phone survey of 503 Israeli Jews, 18 years and
older,evening March 7, 1996. Estimated margin of error: +/-
4.5 percentagepoints. This survey was commissioned by
IMRA
.
Dr. Aaron Lerner, Associate
IMRA (Independent Media
Review & Analysis)
(mail POB 982 Kfar Sava)
Tel
972-9-904719 Fax 972-9-911645
Internet address:
imra@netvision.net.il
Pager 03-6750750 subscriber
4811
New: Web Site : http://www.aquanet.co.il/web/ray/imra.html
|